Multi-Year Revenue Projection Analysis

Multi-Year Revenue Projection

How to use the Multi-Year Revenue Projection analysis

This analysis enables you to forecast donor counts and revenue for each of your key donor segments-Top, Middle, and Bottom-for the next three fiscal years. Drawing on historical gift data, the analysis first determines each donor's annual giving tier based on customizable thresholds, then tracks how donors move between these segments over time. By calculating actual transition rates (for example, the number of Middle-tier donors who become Top-tier donors or lapse) from recent years, it builds a data-driven projection of how your donor base is likely to evolve. It then applies the typical annual giving for each segment to estimate future revenue, providing a clear, actionable view of potential fundraising results.

The data used comes directly from your Gifts table, segmenting donors by summed annual giving and aligning fiscal years to your organization's conventions. Rather than just reporting past performance, this analysis models donor retention, upgrade, downgrade, and attrition patterns, helping you understand not just how many donors are likely to stay, but also how the composition of your segments will shift. The Projected Donor Count and Projected Revenue columns are central, as they quantify your future pipeline, providing realistic targets for each giving level.

Use these insights to inform your annual planning, resource allocation, and targeted stewardship. For example, if the projection shows declining top-tier donor counts, you can prioritize high-touch engagement for those at risk of downgrading or lapsing. If middle-tier donors show strong upgrade potential, you might invest in cultivation strategies designed to move them up. This analysis is especially valuable for development directors and advancement leadership, as well as anyone overseeing an annual fund or major gifts strategy. Integrate it into quarterly or annual review cycles-this analysis is recommended to be reviewed periodically as part of your Constituent Intelligence routines.

To maximize value, assign responsibility for reviewing and acting on the findings to both frontline fundraisers and leadership. Use the projections to set realistic goals, prioritize portfolios, and monitor progress against benchmarks. Success measures should include improved retention rates, increased upgrade rates between tiers, and closing the gap between projected and actual revenue. Regular use of this analysis will help you spot risks and opportunities early, ensuring your fundraising strategies remain proactive and data-driven.